$4 Gas Will Soon Be Back, and This Time It's Not Just About Iran
by: GasBuddy
Published: July 20, 2026
BOSTON...The nation’s average price of gasoline has risen 13.0 cents over the last week and stands at $3.95 per gallon, according to GasBuddy® data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country. The national average is up 6.5 cents from a month ago and is 85.7 cents per gallon higher than a year ago. The national average price of diesel rose 22.3 cents in the last week and stands at $5.077 per gallon.
"Average gasoline and diesel prices rose in nearly every state for the second straight week, with the national average price of gasoline likely to reach $4 per gallon within the next 48 hours and diesel already back above $5 per gallon nationally," said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy. "While the ongoing U.S.-Iran situation continues to weigh on markets, the story is increasingly less about crude oil and more about global refining capacity—the Strait of Hormuz remains closed while continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries further squeeze an already strained supply picture. With WTI crude approaching $85 per barrel in Sunday night trading, price-cycling markets are likely to see another jolt higher in the coming days, and motorists should brace for a rougher stretch ahead."
OIL MARKET DYNAMICS
Oil prices were little changed to start the week but remain sharply elevated after last week's renewed U.S.-Iran escalation sent crude surging more than 10% within days, with the Strait of Hormuz again effectively closed following fresh attacks on commercial shipping and U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian military assets. Iran's Revolutionary Guard has pledged that "not a single drop" of oil will pass through the waterway, while Energy Aspects warned that depleted inventories and the shipping slowdown could push prices above $100 per barrel if the standoff persists. In early Monday trade, WTI was down 35 cents to $82.14, well above last Monday's $74.28, while Brent edged up 17 cents to $88.27 from $79.10 a week ago, leaving both benchmarks up roughly $10 in a single week and U.S. gasoline topping $4 per gallon nationally for the first time since the spring peak. "The oil market is tightening again, likely keeping prices supported. Repeated strikes on vessels crossing the Strait of Hormuz have reduced tankers exiting the Gulf, while drone attacks on Russia's Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal have halted loadings. A Houthi threat to blockade Saudi Arabia adds further risk, as Saudi exports rerouted through the Red Sea port of Yanbu rely on the Bab el Mandeb Strait," said Giovanni Staunovo, UBS commodities analyst, via e-mail.
OIL AND REFINED PRODUCT SUPPLIES
The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending July 10, 2026, showed U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.7 million barrels and are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year, while the SPR fell 3.0 million barrels to 316.5 million barrels. Gasoline inventories fell by 1.5 million barrels and are about 8% below the five-year seasonal average, while distillate inventories rose by 4.6 million barrels and are about 11% below the five-year seasonal average. Refinery utilization rose 0.4 percentage points to 96.2%, while implied gasoline demand, the EIA's proxy for retail demand, was essentially flat at 8.844 million barrels per day, down just 1,000 bpd from the prior week.
GAS PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. gas price encountered by motorists was $3.99 per gallon, up 10 cents from a week ago, followed by $3.69, $3.89, $3.79, and $3.59, rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. gas price is $3.86 per gallon, up 17 cents from last week and about 9 cents lower than the national average.
The top 10% of stations in the country average $5.24 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $3.36 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average prices: Indiana ($3.35), Oklahoma ($3.53), and Mississippi ($3.54).
The states with the highest average prices: California ($5.44), Hawaii ($5.40), and Washington ($4.96).
Biggest weekly changes: Arizona (+36.2¢), Nebraska (+26.1¢), Michigan (+23.2¢), Pennsylvania (+23.2¢), Georgia (+20.0¢).
DIESEL PRICE TRENDS
The most common U.S. diesel price stood at $4.99 per gallon, unchanged from last week, followed by $4.89, $4.79, $4.69, and $4.49, rounding out the top five most common prices.
The median U.S. diesel price is $4.99 per gallon, up 30 cents from last week and about 9 cents lower than the national average.
Diesel prices at the top 10% of stations in the country average $5.80 per gallon, while the bottom 10% average $4.44 per gallon.
The states with the lowest average diesel prices: Oklahoma ($4.51), Missouri ($4.58), and Kansas ($4.58).
The states with the highest average diesel prices: Hawaii ($6.95), California ($6.67), and Washington ($5.94).
Biggest weekly changes: Colorado (+43.8¢), Arizona (+39.5¢), Mississippi (+37.1¢), New Jersey (+36.6¢), Delaware (+36.2¢).